The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued an El Nino Advisory, stating that the El Nino conditions are expected to strengthen and last in the Northern Hemisphere throughout  the winter of 2009-2010.

For those of us in Southern California, North Coastal San Diego County in particular, that means way more rain than we’re used to.  There’s no doubt we need it after so many years of water shortages, but the torrential downpours can cause problems. 

• Make sure all your drains and gutters are cleared of debris and are functioning properly before the rain hits. 
• If your home doesn’t have gutters, you may consider having them installed.
• Visually inspect nearby storm drains before the storm season and after every rain.
• If drain are obstructed, notify your local Dept of Public Works 

Stay dry and enjoy the show!

Low end has hit bottom, but Del Mar is still on the way down

While the lower end in San Diego County is selling like hotcakes, with multiple offers and major frustration for those trying to purchase, the buyers still have the upper hand in higher end markets like Del Mar. 

Depreciating vs Appreciating Market

The de facto definition of a depreciating market is one where the rate at which inventory is coming on the market is faster than the rate at which property is going into escrow.  Your basic supply/demand equation…  The low end in San Diego County – everywhere from Oceanside, Vista, and San Marcos to Clairemont, Linda Vista and Mira Mesa – is seeing a definite slowing in new inventory and a huge number of new escrows.  From what I can see, they’ve already hit bottom.  The demand is putting pressure on prices, which are bound to start creeping up soon as a result.  In contrast, home prices in Del Mar, Carmel Valley, Solana Beach, Rancho Santa Fe, and other high end coastal North San Diego County markets, have yet to hit bottom.  The following graph showing says it all:

Del Mar CA Market Activity - a declining market

This set of circumstances provides an incredible opportunity for those interesting in getting their foot in the door into Del Mar Real Estate.  For the inside scoop on the great values, give me a call (760-815-1318) or do your own research on our site DreamHomesByTheBeach.com.  Don’t let this market pass you by!

Rampant short sales and huge lender losses

I understand the pain lenders must feel with all the losses they are suffering right now.  So, why doesn’t someone from within, from within and above, streamline the process so they can minimize their losses and move on??  The extent of the bureaucracy is unbelievable.

The short sale process: a classic bureaucractic quagmire

A prime example of lenders cutting off their noses to spite their faces is what’s happening with my clients P and T.  They are all cash buyers, ready to act swiftly and close within a couple of weeks, but looking in areas where virtually every listing is a short sale or a foreclosure.  We restricted our search to properties whose listing agents had specifically told us they were extremely close to getting bank approval.  We wrote offers on two properties, both with reassurances that we should have an answer within a week or two at the latest.  It has been 6 weeks with the first, and almost 5 with the second.  We get no courtesy updates, no calls even inquiring whether we are still in the game or have found another property. 

The perfect property with an imperfect agent

Meanwhile, we’ve been keeping tabs on the market, checking out new listings, hoping for an REO (banked owned) property that would meet their needs – these sellers (i.e. the banks) generally respond quickly and we’d be able to close in a couple of weeks.  No such luck, but we did find The Perfect Property.  The problem is,

1. it’s a short sale,
2. it just came on the market, and
3. the listing agent has done no homework. 

This particular listing agent lists homes with particularly low prices to generate lots of offers, submits them ALL to the lenders (there’s a first and a second trust deed holder), and then waits for them to make sense of them all.  While the banks are proceeding with the short sale approval process, he continues to submit offers as he receives them, bogging down the system.  Eventually, the lenders come back with a minimum approved figure, of which the listing agent then informs all buyers, giving them an opportunity to respond with their highest and best offer.  Then, buyers must wait again for the next round of bureaucrats to assess the offers and pick one. 

A very long wait

We were informed this process would take 90 days!  Here are a couple of high quality buyers, willing to pay FULL price, all cash, and the lenders are stupid enough to risk losing them.  It all could be settled within a matter of a couple of weeks.  But because the lenders haven’t taken the time to create an efficient system for dealing with offers, and because the listing agent is lazy and doesn’t want to do the extra work of finding the best offer to present to the lender, we have to sit around and wait for this inefficient process to run its course…  We may or may not stick around…

The continued weather reports of the gripping cold across the Midwest and upper northeast have once again made me aware of how lucky I am to live in San Diego California.  Today is sunny, clear skies, and in the 70′s! 

I find it so easy to become complacent and just go about my life, mostly outdoors, without the thought of putting on a heavy coat, hat, gloves and warm boots.  There are no problems with skidding on ice or having my windshield wipers on extra fast to clear the pouring rain! 

Yes, I pay heavily to live here – a smaller home at a higher price – but to me it’s worth it.  While many are spending time in their homes in front of their fireplaces, I am about to take a walk on the beach! 

I live in North County Coastal San Diego, where the surf meets the turf in Del Mar, and, on a clear day like today, one can see islands 100 miles away!   Well, off to get my sunscreen and book and head to the beach!

While those of us working in Del Mar Real Estate are having a very slow month, our colleagues to the north can barely keep their head above water. 

Hot Real Estate Deals!

The market in Oceanside, Vista, and Fallbrook is so hot for buyers, just about every listing has multiple offers!  I’ve been working with several clients looking for homes in those areas, and we’re seeing homes that sold for $450k back in 2004 selling for as low as $150-$200k today!  From townhomes to detached bungalows, there are some unbelievable deals out there right now.  No wonder this is where all the activity is!

North San Diego County Real Estate Sales

Public officials and news commentators often complain about how we Californians are too in love with our cars to use public transportation.  While I agree we are fairly addicted to our own personal set of wheels, I am certainly willing and would be happy to take a bus or train from time to time and avoid sitting in traffic.

The problem is, the schedules and routes available leave a lot to be desired, and I often have no choice but to drive myself.

Take the day before yesterday, for example.  I thought it would be a fun outing for my family (my husband, my 2 year old boy and my 4 year old girl) to head to downtown San Diego from our north county beachside community, Cardiff-by-the-Sea.  It’s only a 20 minute drive, but I thought part of the fun would be to take the commuter train “The Coaster” down there and back. 

(Buses weren’t an option unless we were willing to transfer 3 times and spend our entire day just on getting there.)  So, I went online and looked up the Coaster schedule – NOT a single train on Sundays!  I guess it’s only for commuters – well, only for M-F commuters… 

So then I checked Amtrak- I know I’ve often had to sit and wait for passing trains on a Sunday, so, I think to myself, there must be plenty of trains scheduled throughout the day.  Well, there were several options – can’t complain there.  Almost one train an hour.

The shocker was the fee - they charge $18 round trip for 1 adult!  My 4 year old could go at half fare, and the little one was free, so our total came to $45 – just to go 20 minutes down the coast.  Had the Coaster been available it would have cost us $24 total – better, but still hardly what one would expect after living in a city like New York, where a 20 minute ride costs a few bucks…  No wonder people drive themselves.

Depressing Times

This has been a depressing time, particularly for those of us in the real estate industry.  Well, in fact, for everybody!  The economic crisis has spread around the world, and few are immune to its devastation.  I have watched so many lose their homes whether through foreclosure or being forced to sell short.  Lovely families with small children, elderly who had recently downsized, up and coming yuppies who had bought their first condo.  Even those San Diego homeowners whose mortgages are of the good old fashioned 30 year fixed variety are struggling because they have lost their jobs. 

Wide Range of Price Adjustments

In San Diego County, the drop in real estate values spans the gamut.  I’ve seen as low as 10%-15% adjustments in some of the coastal communities like Del Mar, Solana Beach and Carmel Valley; 50% in several areas with lots of newer track homes like Chula Vista and San Marcos; and as high as 70% drops in some areas like Vista, Fallbrook and Oceanside. 

The Silver Lining

So can there possible be a silver lining to all of this?  Well, one’s loss is another’s gain.  The fact is that the affordability index has tripled in North San Diego County Real Estate over the last year, from 10% in November 2007 to 30% in November 2008.

I had yet another call today from a delusional seller who thinks her home is worth what it was in 2006! Her friend’s home, she says, sold in 3 days! Sure it did, because it was priced right. A price that was an excellent price or rather what might be considered “a bargain” for the Carmel Valley area in San Diego.

How realistic are you?

In this market, was it really a bargain or was the friend just being realistic about the market? If, as is predicted, the Carmel Valley market sees more foreclosures and the buyers still aren’t taking the leap, then the home that sold for what is perceived as a bargain price today, may just be considered a high price in 2-3 months!

Get your head out of the clouds!

Delusional Seller!

Sellers have a hard time acknowledging their home is not immune to the shrinking prices we are seeing! Yes, even in the coastal areas of San Diego County California! Homeowners must look at the larger financial picture because keeping a home on the market at an inflated price could wind up costing more.

[OKAY!  After a two week blogging freeze due to hugely frustrating technical difficulties, I am finally able to resume.  I could go on and on about the bizarre world of blogging - widgets, themes, stylesheets, tags, plugins, code - but I'll reserve venting on that subject to another blog entry!  I apologize to all the people who've been waiting for this promised post.]

If only I had unlimited money and a 10,000 sq ft home with endless wall space – I’d have bought truckloads at Del Mar’s Annual Taste of Del Mar and Art Stroll a couple of weeks ago.  What an amazing collection of artists!  While the various food stations looked wonderful too, with scrumptious looking samples from some of our best restaurants, there were so many gifted artists exhibiting their work there, I got lost feasting my eyes instead.  Here are a few pictures of our fun day in Del Mar.  Click on the photos to view a larger version.   Please remember, I’m not a professional photographer, and I couldn’t come close to capturing these artists’ works.  You’ll have to visit their websites to see why I was so impressed!

Del Mar Art Stroll

Tony et al from RadHatter.com

Rad Hatter and myself

I really enjoyed meeting this artist – a jovial character with creative sculptures made from various metals, some free form, some inspired by nature:

Sculptor Elon Ebanks - www.sdvag.net

Beautiful hand-blown glass artist Bruce Stowell was there – each piece exquisitely unique. www.GlassTriangleStudio.com:

Bruce Stowell at www.GlassTriangleStudio.com

I thoroughly enjoyed meeting and chatting with this unique artist, Jorge Fernandez, who described the creative process that leads to his evocative sculptures.  We also had a fun conversation about blogging and the way of the future… Please check out his beautiful work at www.JorgeArt.com.

Jorge Fernandez

The range of artists included this talented portrait photographer out of my neighborhood, Cardiff-by-the-Sea.  This photo doesn’t do justice, so check out his portfolio at www.DouglasFrierott.com.

Photographer Douglas Frierott

I was completely charmed by Marna Schindler’s whimsical work.  As was my 4 year old daughter.  In fact, I ended up buying 4 of her pieces – one for each of my kids and two for me!  Check out her work at www.DoggonitArt.com.

Marna Schindler

More Marna Schindler

I’ve always been particularly drawn to crystalline-glazed porcelain.  Sharon Jackman has mastered the technique and applies it beautifully to her one-of-a-kind pieces.  Nice site too at www.ShajaCeramics.com.

Sharon Jackman

Another extraordinary artist presenting her work at the fair was Nha Vuu.  She creates beautiful paintings of nature reminiscent of traditional Chinese art, but also captivating works that abstractly evoke a hillside village.  Again, it’s truly a treat to visit her website at www.NhaVuu.com.

Nha Vuu

Nha Vuu

One of the more classical “fine” artists there was Toni Williams – beautiful landscapes, seascapes…  Her virtual gallery at www.ToniWilliamsArt.com shows her awesome collection. 

Toni Williams

I was fascinated by Michael Sussna’s mathematical images – he takes fractals generated on the computer and turns them into striking “paintings” on canvas.  Each one is unique and spellbinding. www.Sussna.com

Michael Sussna

Another gifted artist at the fair with his abstract inspirational paintings was Stephen Schubert.  Check out his beautiful website at www.SchubertModern.com.

Stephen Schubert

Here’s another traditional “fine artist”, Jamie Ennen, that was there with her beautiful and serene landscapes.  Again, my picture can’t come close to capturing her work, so be sure to visit her site at www.JamieEnnen.com.

Jamie Ennen

After all this great art, I still have to admit – the highlight of my day was dancing to Semisi and Fulabula with my 2 and 4 year old kids. 

My kids and I dancing to Semisi and Fulabula

This big event is happening tomorrow, here in our quaint downtown Del Mar village center.  Our whole town comes alive with food tasting stands, kid’s crafts stations, music and entertainment, and numerous arts and craft booths.  Fill your belly with scrumptious samples from our finest restaurants and get all your Christmas shopping done, all in one afternoon!  Read more about this annual event, “Taste of Del Mar and Art Stroll” here.

If you do come, do look for me, Eva, and say hello – I’ll be sampling the food heavily (!) and taking lots of photos – especially of the kids at the hands-on craft stations.  And also be sure to check back on this blog where I’ll be posting all the photos.

Powerhouse Park, Del Mar, Courtesy of Will Sooter