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Statistics have always intrigued me – in part because they are so malleable. It’s easy to manipulate the numbers to argue just about any point you want to make.
The high end areas in San Diego County like Del Mar, Solana Beach and Rancho Santa Fe are still in serious decline, with very little activity and large inventory sitting on the market.
An interesting analysis I recently did shows why the sellers had better get on board with the new reality or they will never sell their home. I compared the price per square foot of homes that are active on the market (i.e. “not selling”!) with those that have sold, and more specifically, with those that have sold in the last 12 months, 6 months, 3 months, 2 months or 1 month. I focused on Del Mar Ca real estate, since, after all, that’s where my office is and where much of my business tends to be. I also restricted the analysis to detached homes in the $1m-$3m range, since that is the most representative niche in Del Mar.
Here are the raw numbers:
- 99 actives (NOT selling)
- 58 sold over the last 12 months
- 20 sold over the last 6 months
- 12 sold over the last 3 months
- 7 sold over the last 2 months
- 2 sold over the last 1 month
- 11 pending (in escrow)
When looking at the price per square foot of the Del Mar homes that sold in these periods, we see a trend:
- actives - $784/SF
- 12 mo - $604/SF
- 6 mo - $573/SF
- 3 mo - $518/SF
- 2 mo - $554/SF
- 1 mo - $322/SF
- pending - $479/SF (once these close, the final sales price per square foot [SP/SF] will be much lower, as the $479 is based on ASKING price)
A more visual depiction:
Del Mar Ca - Price per Sq Ft as function of period sold
In other words, those Del Mar properties that have sold more recently are those with a much lower price per square foot. Del Mar listings still sitting on the market NOT selling, at an average of $784/SF, are simply OVERPRICED. Of course price per square foot is not the only factor in selling a home, however, this analysis is certainly a telling indication of what’s selling!
For solid, realistic input on where you need to be priced in order to sell your Del Mar Ca home in today’s market, give me a call (760-815-1318) – I’d be happy to give you an honest assessment, with no obligations or strings attached.
